'Rather than taking a very short-term view on the markets, equity investing should be premised on longer term growth opportunities.'
After the April-July fiscal deficit data was released on August 31, several analysts hinted that the government may need to go for cuts in capital expenditure to meet the fiscal deficit target.
US's terrible political and economic leadership will ultimately cost the dollar its value. India must act early to avoid being dragged down, suggests R Jagannathan.
Growing at a robust rate due to economic reforms in key sectors like digitisation and infrastructure, India has emerged as a star performer and is projected to contribute more than 16 per cent of the global growth, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. "What we have been observing for quite some time now is that India has been growing at a very robust rate. "It's one of the star performers when it comes to real growth when you look at peer countries.
In the Budget speech, Arun Jaitley had first spoken about the need to have a range.
For his first Budget in July 2014, Jaitley inherited a fiscal deficit target of 4.1 per cent of GDP. From 4.1 per cent, the fiscal deficit came down to 3.4 per cent by 2018-19, with two slippages from the budgeted targets, in 2017-18 and 2018-19, the former due to introduction of the GST, says Arup Roychoudhury.
Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank and Tata Steel were the other big gainers. Sun Pharma, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints, Nestle and Infosys were the laggards.
Investors' wealth jumped Rs 13.78 lakh crore on Monday as the benchmark equity index Sensex hit its lifetime high after exit polls predicted a massive win for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha polls. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 2,777.58 points or 3.75 per cent to hit a record peak of 76,738.89 in early trade. The benchmark finally ended at 76,468.78, registering a sharp rally of 2,507.47 points or 3.39 per cent.
Economists have cautioned that any deferment of the government's fiscal goals would prove counter-productive and raise the interest payment burden.
Economists have said if a stimulus is needed it should be different from what was provided in 2008-09, when the economy faced the ripple effects of a global meltdown following the Lehman Brothers collapse.
Enhanced revenue generation is a priority for the government.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Monday said the existing foreign trade policy (FTP) will be extended for six months till March 31 next year. The government had earlier extended the FTP 2015-20 until September 30 this year due to the Covid-19 crisis. The FTP provides guidelines for enhancing exports to push economic growth and create jobs.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will set a record by presenting the sixth Budget in a row -- 5 annual Budgets and one interim -- a feat achieved so far only by former Prime Minister Morarji Desai. With the presentation of interim Budget on February 1, Sitharaman will surpass the records of her predecessors like Manmohan Singh, Arun Jaitley, P Chidambaram, and Yashwant Sinha, who had presented five budgets in a row. Desai, as Finance Minister, had presented five annual Budgets and one interim Budget between 1959-1964. The interim Budget 2024-25 to be presented by Sitharaman on February 1, will be a vote-on-account that will give the government authority to spend certain sums of money till a new government comes to office after the April-May general elections.
'We get an overzealous army of tax inspectors pushing the economy too hard,' says Ajay Shah.
GDP growth of 7.7 per cent in the first half of this fiscal has "left sceptics gasping and woefully behind the curve", an RBI article said on Wednesday. It also stressed the buildup in the growth momentum is likely to be sustained. The article on the state of the economy published in the Reserve Bank's December Bulletin on Wednesday also said CPI-based retail inflation is expected to ease to 4.6 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024-25 from 5.6 per cent in November.
BJP's reversals in rural Gujarat has prompted many policy watchers to predict that the Budget would have incentives for the agriculture sector and the rural economy.
The RBI is understood to be dithering since it would want more clarity on the cost of the fiscal policies the new government would undertake before it decides to cut rates, even though it has pencilled in a lower gross domestic product growth rate for this fiscal year.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said that consolidated fiscal deficit of the Centre and states rose to 7.2 per cent in 2015 from 7 per cent in the previous year.
Highlights of RBI's third quarter review of monetary policy.
Retail inflation crossed the RBI's comfort level and rose to 5.21 per cent in December on increase in prices of food items.
With general elections on the horizon, the government's privatisation bandwagon has almost but stalled as a government wary of being accused of selling family silver opts for minority stake sales on stock exchanges over outright privatisation. The result -- the divestment target for current fiscal year is again likely to be missed. Big ticket privatisation plans such as that of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) and CONCOR are already on the backburner and analysts feel meaningful privatisation can happen only after April/May general elections.
India's public debt ratio, which remarkably remained stable at around 70 per cent of the GDP since 1991, is projected to jump by 17 percentage points to nearly 90 per cent because of increase in public spending due to COVID-19, the IMF said.
The report said South Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region.
The new pay scale will come into effect from January 1.
China is considering a gradual rollback of its last year's $586 billion stimulus package, as the economy sets its sights at over eight per cent growth this year.
India can become a $6.7 trillion economy by 2031, from $3.4 trillion currently, if the country clocks an average growth of 6.7 per cent for 7 years, an S&P Global report said on Thursday. India had clocked a 7.2 per cent GDP growth in 2022-23 fiscal. But a global slowdown and lagged effect of a policy rate hike by RBI could slow down growth to 6 per cent in the current fiscal, S&P Global said in a report titled 'Look Forward: India's Money'.
By taking the mutual fund route, investors can take exposure to gilts with small amounts. Over a decade or more, returns from these funds tend to be sound.
Finance Ministr Arun Jaitley will have to do a balancing act to manage fiscal prudence.
If there is no third wave of the pandemic, the fiscal position of the Centre and the states will be much better than budgeted for FY22 and the states may garner Rs 60,000 crore more in tax collections at Rs 8.27 lakh crore this fiscal year than they have budgeted, a report said. The report by SBI Research on Monday bases its optimism on GST collection so far this fiscal, which has been the best ever in spite of the fact that the two months bore the maximum brunt of the second wave -- with April setting a record Rs 1.41 lakh crore and May collection a tad low at Rs 1.03 lakh crore. The report also said overall government finances do not look overstretched as GST collections have continued to maintain pace so far and the additional fiscal impact arising from free vaccination and more food supplies will only be around Rs 28,512 crore.
The government's fiscal deficits have reduced over the last five years.
The sovereign ratings outlook for India may turn negative, from stable currently, if the country's fiscal policy fails to check external shocks like crude prices or aggravates the inflation concerns, global rating agency Moody's warned on Monday.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
If the concerns over risking political capital are overcome, the long-term gains for the Indian economy will be immense, asserts A K Bhattacharya.
The country's economic growth hit a decade low of 5 per cent in the last fiscal on account of poor performance in the farm, manufacturing and mining sectors.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her sixth straight Budget ahead of the Parliamentary elections, matching the record of former Prime Minister Morarji Desai. Sitharaman in her pre-election Budget, which technically is a vote on account and popularly termed an interim Budget, will seek Parliament's nod for a grant in advance to meet the central government's essential expenditure for the first four months of the new fiscal year that starts in April. A new government elected after the April/May general elections will present the full Budget, likely in July.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
Industry body CII on Thursday made a case for pushing reforms in sectors like land, labour, and agriculture by the Modi 3.0 government to accelerate economic growth, which is estimated to be around 8 per cent in the current financial year. CII president Sanjiv Puri said a lot of policy interventions in the past have put the economy on "a much stronger wicket". "The growth rate is poised to touch 8 per cent during the current year, marking the fourth consecutive year of above 7 per cent + growth.
Expressing serious concern about the country's financial health, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday warned that economic progress could be hindered if the mounting fiscal deficit of 9 to 10 per cent of the national income was not contained.
